Invaded States of America

Tagaziel

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Given that this is a pretty common trope in alternate history fiction, I've been wondering: in practical terms, how would one go about invading the United States and maintaining control of such a vast nation? Is that even possible?

I'll post my thoughts, but first, I'd like to get to know your opinion.
 
depends on so many factors. But we have to make something clear first, or it will be useless to talk about it.

But I will make it short.

The use of nuclear weapons.

The US has a large quantity of nuclear weapons in many different variations. Any enemey that would be close to a victory against the US on their soil would have most probably to deal with nuclear strikes
 
Of course. Any kind of invasion would have to account for the nuclear weapons deployed in the United States and destroy, seize, or disable them in order to succeed.
 
I can hardly imagine a situation where USA is invaded which doesn't result in a nuclear war, possibly one on a global scale because of second strike capabilities, but not necessarily.

But I don't see a way of maintaining control of the whole of States. Divide and conquer? Information technology, espionage etc.
USA is already having internal problems (i.e. Texas and the Mexican border, economy crisis etc.), and looking a few decades down, when the oil runs out, I think USA will perhaps fall apart, or at least divide to several major pieces (something akin to Panarin's theory), which will make it a lot easier to seize and control (now, whether USA would follow the Yugoslavian or Czechoslovakian "method" is a different question).
I've also read somewhere that majority of USA weapons technology is produced from resources imported from China. Slowly closing the tap over the time, diminishing the flow and it could potentially fall back behind its competitor, and then strike.

Other than that...some new form of biological weapon, a virus of some sort? Set a pandemic, initially in the US, while keeping a cure in secret, and once it goes beyond its borders, introduce the cure.
But that's just a thought, and a rather extreme one. I don't think it's actually achievable, since the risk is too high and things could easily get out of control.


As for a "classic" invasion, off-shore parties and so on... Well, Alaska could actually be of interest, but there's Canada on the way. Yeah.
I'm not sure about other places. I cannot imagine another D-Day happening on American soil, if you catch my drift.

It's simply a huge country and a great military power. If I'm not wrong, basically every corner of it has a major military fort and is well protected.
Even if you invaded and hypothetically, took control of it, somehow, you'd probably have a great uprising on your hands.


If I had to make a pick, I'd say only viable option is 21st century cyber, information, economy and politics "warfare", primarily - it would take years, decades, but once USA is weakened enough, a chance for a strike and takeover could be possible.

But all I've written is basically wild fiction made up at the spur of the moment, don't take me (too) seriously.
 
Atomkilla said:
But all I've written is basically wild fiction made up at the spur of the moment, don't take me (too) seriously.

Wild fiction is the point of this thread. Hey, maybe we should retitle it "The Grassy Knoll Academic Discussions Club".

Also, looked up Panarin. This image is cool:

800px-Panarin.svg.png
 
CIA will now eagerly read this thread!!!

Invasion is always difficult, and hasn't been an easy thing to plan, ever. There are always many factors that push and shove, that you must prioritize (thus gamble your priorities) on how to proceed.

Amphibious invasions are extremely difficult, one against USA would have to be comparable to the D-day one, but much greater in scale and scope (preferably on many locations), considering todays efficient weapons. A single, well aimed cruise missile could devastate an amphibious landing. These weapons won't be held back, and this would mean there would have to have been a spectacular air-war beforehand, cutting out most missile capacities.
To even get near the US coast, several simultaneous naval wars would have to be fought and won, and would most definitely require a coalition of navies.

Mexico and Canada would come in very handy as decoys. Canada could be used to draw American troops into the northern forests, and into drawn out guerilla warfare. Mexico could be used for their large population, to pump out a steady stream of fighting force, to keep the south occupied. In Mexico fighting morale would also be easyer to come by, and one could also incite the whole of South-America to send volunteers.

Again, any invasion is nearly impossible to guess, as Hitler said it - going to war is like opening a door into a darkened room - no matter the qualifications or experience you have - you cannot foresee the future.

USA can be invaded conventionally, and occupied, and broken apart into new puppet states and such, just like any other nation - but it would obviously require a whole deal of force, and most likely a major coalition of forces. It would be long lasting, and it would most likely go through a nuclear phase, since the stockpile - in theory - is there to prevent just that, a land-invasion that threatens the nation as a whole.
 
The US is just. too. big.

But if there were to be a conventional invasion I imagine it would occur kind like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fnd0qg4I_MM

Also it's size "could" be used against it maybe? Maybe try to make the US commit much of their forces and resources fighting abroad in far away places and then start an sneak attack taking them by surprise, overwhelming their defences at one given point in order to punch a hole in the middle of all the confusion and pour the invasion forces in.
 
Gonzalez said:
The US is just. too. big.

But if there were to be a conventional invasion I imagine it would occur kind like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fnd0qg4I_MM

Also it's size "could" be used against it maybe? Maybe try to make the US commit much of their forces and resources fighting abroad in far away places and then start an sneak attack taking them by surprise, overwhelming their defences at one given point in order to punch a hole in the middle of all the confusion and pour the invasion forces in.

Most of the population and administration hugs the coastline (much unlike for example the USSR, where the capital itself was deep inland, and had to be hunted for), DC would be a comparatively easy target.
The deep inland would be very handy as a drawn out attricion type scenario, but it wouldn't be comparable to the great benefit it was to the USSR vs the Germans.
 
It's impossible, of course. After the cold war America was the only superpower, and they very vehemently worked to make it stay that way.

It would require superb coordination from multiple countries and armies, which is of course impossible both because everyone either hates each other or is very weary of everyone else, and it can't be kept a secret which means you lose the prime element of surprise.

Even if you take for example china with it´s large military, maybe russia and some other large countries, I could never see them even attempt it.
 
If we are going to get realistic then it's in no one's interest to start a big scale war nowadays. The world is plenty unstable as it is and most world leaders who would have the capability of mounting such an invasion would prefer things to be more stable than less. Plus even if such invasion could be mounted, who would gain anything from it. There are much more subtle ways to struggle for power and/or domination.

Off topic sidenote: I think we should all put aside out petty differences and look to the stars, there are plenty of planets out there to conquer and, who knows, maybe other civilizations who will stand in our way :wink:
 
Tagaziel said:
Wild fiction is the point of this thread. Hey, maybe we should retitle it "The Grassy Knoll Academic Discussions Club".

Also, looked up Panarin. This image is cool:


I vote to change the thread's name. 'tis democracy, after all.


As for Panarin - yes, that image, as well as his theory are pretty cool, and not that unrealistic.
Of course, the predictions of USA disintegrating by 2010 are obviously incorrect, but as I've posted before, give it some more time, a decade or so, another global crisis (which is more or less imminent) and US might just as well fall apart.
It's not only the US in danger, though.

Once oil/food/water start running out in great amounts (food is already, a good portion of the world is starving - but I'm referring to First World countries here, and we all know the situation with oil), I have a trouble imagining many superpowers/greater economies will remain so stable as they are now, at least in the long run. US is the world's biggest importer, if I'm not wrong, and we all know how much their economy is vital to the world's.
Once dollar falls, who knows what can happen.


Anyway, let's hear your thoughts Tagz.


Gonzalez said:
Plus even if such invasion could be mounted, who would gain anything from it. There are much more subtle ways to struggle for power and/or domination.


Exactly.

I have to wonder - what does one exactly gain from conquering US?
Natural resources? Cheap work force? Lebensraum? Technology?

Yes and no, and I tend to veer to the negative side here.

The simple cost of such an undertaking, even if US were weakened at the beginning of the process would be astronomical, and would quite possibly destroy world's economy, not to mention the invading country/countries. Pouring that much money and manpower into one such project would mean a collapse of your own country, unless you do it right, which is pretty hard in this case.
Not to mention the possibility of MAD.

With such high costs, one is better off investing into terraforming and colonizing Mars for themselves (and yes, I'm joking a bit here, but you see the point).


Gonzalez said:
Off topic sidenote: I think we should all put aside out petty differences and look to the stars, there are plenty of planets out there to conquer and, who knows, maybe other civilizations who will stand in our way :wink:


Eh, humans will first start fighting among themselves over who will have the honor of firing a first bullet/laser/plasma/nuclear bomb on unsuspecting aliens.
 
If you went with a realistic scenario. even If the invasion landing went according to plan, the invading forces would only get so far from beachhead before begin dragged into the molasses of having to deal with every National Guardsman, Cop, Vet, Redneck, Hillbilly,Militia Man, Gang Banger, Survivalist, Conscripted Prisoner, Accountant with a Hand gun in next the 4 states.

Now some would say how would a bunch of farmers and such be able to stand up to a better equipped force? To which anybody with a Brain would just point them to the Taliban or any other Guerrilla force from the last 300 years. the idea isn't to fight them in battle, you would most likely lose. But when you have to face 314 million people, with around 95 guns for every 100 of them, you got one helluva slog in front of you.

Not to mention logistically it would be a nightmare. Keeping up the flow of supplies would be a massive strain on who ever is doing the invading. Their economy as well the world one would be taking a massive nosedive, and would how long they would be able to keep up that kind of invasion would depend on who was doing the invading as well as the world in the rest of the scenario.
 
It's basically impossible unless the US suffers from a massive collapse and become a technological and economical backwater in 50-60 years or somesuch.

Otherwise, You'd first have to find the motivation to get several superpowers together; not one country can pull off that kind of stunt. China, Russia and another powerful country together (France? India?) could maybe cut it, but getting those to work together is impossible. Attacking the center of the world's economy, the guys who trade anything and deal with anyone so long as they're not from North Korea or Cuba, is just an incredibly idiotic idea.

Second, destroy the US's army in the field and at sea. You simply cannot invade them while they have military bases, carrier fleets, airports and whatnot at their disposal outside of their territory. The majority of the US's conventional force would have to be scattered and broken; good luck with that one. Even the coalition I named above would have a hard time.

Third, supplies and logistics. Operation Overlord, the closest equivalent to such an invasion, required months of preparation from the most powerful militaries and economies of the world, and that was only to cross the Channel and land into a territory with a generally friendly population. Crossing either the Pacific or Atlantic ocean with a force capable of establishing a beachhead and a secure supply line... The sheer number of problems boggles the mind.

Fourth, secrecy. The aforementionned Overlord was preceded by an elaborate deception, aided by the fact that the German's intelligence was either incompetent or actively working against the regime. Meanwhile, the US has countless agencies dedicated to observing external threats, stuff like the Echelon program and NSA surveillance, as well as satellites, drones and all that tehnological whiz-bang that mean a Russian general can't get a smoke without them knowing the brand of his ciggies. Covering up an invasion force big enough to overtake the US is, quite simply, impossible.

Fifth, this is 'Murica biatches. If there's anything they love more than their country, it's their guns, and if there's anything they love more than their guns, it's shooting them at people from other countries. These guys will make the anti-Nazi resistance look like a bunch of schoolchildren. The entire US military could dissapear overnight, and the country would still have more guns and people who know how to use them than any army in the world. The partisan warfare would be ridiculous.

Sixth, nukes, baby. They're here for a reason.
 
Ilosar said:
It's basically impossible unless the US suffers from a massive collapse and become a technological and economical backwater in 50-60 years or somesuch.

Otherwise, You'd first have to find the motivation to get several superpowers together; not one country can pull off that kind of stunt. China, Russia and another powerful country together (France? India?) could maybe cut it, but getting those to work together is impossible. Attacking the center of the world's economy, the guys who trade anything and deal with anyone so long as they're not from North Korea or Cuba, is just an incredibly idiotic idea.

Second, destroy the US's army in the field and at sea. You simply cannot invade them while they have military bases, carrier fleets, airports and whatnot at their disposal outside of their territory. The majority of the US's conventional force would have to be scattered and broken; good luck with that one. Even the coalition I named above would have a hard time.

Third, supplies and logistics. Operation Overlord, the closest equivalent to such an invasion, required months of preparation from the most powerful militaries and economies of the world, and that was only to cross the Channel and land into a territory with a generally friendly population. Crossing either the Pacific or Atlantic ocean with a force capable of establishing a beachhead and a secure supply line... The sheer number of problems boggles the mind.

Fourth, secrecy. The aforementionned Overlord was preceded by an elaborate deception, aided by the fact that the German's intelligence was either incompetent or actively working against the regime. Meanwhile, the US has countless agencies dedicated to observing external threats, stuff like the Echelon program and NSA surveillance, as well as satellites, drones and all that tehnological whiz-bang that mean a Russian general can't get a smoke without them knowing the brand of his ciggies. Covering up an invasion force big enough to overtake the US is, quite simply, impossible.

Fifth, this is 'Murica biatches. If there's anything they love more than their country, it's their guns, and if there's anything they love more than their guns, it's shooting them at people from other countries. These guys will make the anti-Nazi resistance look like a bunch of schoolchildren. The entire US military could dissapear overnight, and the country would still have more guns and people who know how to use them than any army in the world. The partisan warfare would be ridiculous.

Sixth, nukes, baby. They're here for a reason.

Loved that.
 
I think it's safe to say the days of full scale invasions are over. It was immensely costly for a country like the United States and an entire coalition to occupy Iraq and Afghanistan, imagine how costly and what a logistical nightmare would be to occupy a country as big as the US.

That's why warfare since WWII is limited to proxy wars between superpowers, or smaller scale conflicts, or rebellions and uprisings and such, or at most regional wars between smaller countries. We have reached a point whre a full scale war, like WWII, let's call it WWIII, would mean the total collapse of the world as we know it, nukes or not.
 
It's too big to takeover as a whole, and what's more what's the point? If you take it over entirely it has an inbuilt system of militia resistance that will keep poking away at you, that's what the 2nd amendment is for.

The only thing that would work with a significantly weakened USA is to take over parts that are isolated (like Alaska) or claim parts on the fringes, preferably parts that have grown alienated from the rest of the US (you could see this happen at some point with the PNW for instance).

The more/most likely scenario is that the US frays at the edges (a process that seems to be heavily in progress now) and starts falling apart as different "blocks" become more alienated from each other. The problem with holding such a vast geographical space is that this process seems more or less inevitable. Once that happens, you could pick away and take over blocks.

I don't think the future is really shaping up in favor of geological superpowers though. "Being really big" is no longer an advantage for a country, it often seems pointless and counter-productive to struggle to keep monolithic nations together while smaller nations thrive. Unities of smaller nations seems more like the way to go, a more true federation than the US is right now.
 
an invasion of the classical sense would never work.

we have too many guns.

yes, a gun vs a tank does not mean much. but the problem is its not a gun vs a tank, its 5,000 guns plus some public knowledge ingenuity would make that tank less useful.

and as to BNs last point, thats why it was supposed to be a United States. not a single state, but a united coalition of states.

the problem is that states have allowed the federal government to acquire too much unilateral power that it would be very hard for the individual states to re-assert their power individually. quite possibly because it is easier for them in the short run even if more costly in the long run.
 
Step 1: Laying the Foundations

As mentioned by everyone, the key obstacle in invading and establishing control of the United States is its sheer size, a factor that is generally a historical problem. Look no further than World War II, when the Soviet Union was invaded by the Reich, but was saved by its size. Factories could be evacuated to the Ural mountains, troops redeployed from Asia, the vast spaces used to maneuver armies... This size is the biggest problem.

As such, the first step in preparing for an invasion would be to cut the United States down to size and weaken its economic, military, and political position. I believe there are several ways to tackle this, in no particular order:

* Overseas Military Campaigns

As shown by the most recent wars carried out by the United States, foreign invasions and occupation are extremely costly and put a strain on the economy at home. One of the ways to weaken the U.S.' position is to provoke them into another invasion of a foreign country, provoking a long drawn-out war. Several choices come to mind, though for now, Iran or North Korea would be good candidates.

Since attacks on U.S. targets in North America provoke the biggest reaction, a terrorist attack on a city in North America (such as Boston, San Francisco, Los Angeles etc.) with a trail of breadcrumbs leading to either of the two countries could provoke a large response. Of course, this would require fooling the various national security agencies. The method of attack would be the least of the problems, though given the nature of domestic security, attack methods that would use materials available in the United States and cause mass casualties at the same time would be preferable.

The other caveat is that the regions attacked by the United States would quickly destabilize. The obvious result of provoking the U.S. into attacking North Korea would be that Seoul would cease to exist overnight and the Armistice would fall apart, leading to further casualties. If Iran was tackled, or any other country in the region, Israel would likely be facing invasions of its own, as a natural ally of the United States.

* Economic problems

Another method would be to target the foundations of the economy in the United States. I'm not an economist, so my input on this matter will be limited, but the primary problem with triggering economic meltdowns (I use the term loosely) is the fact that any economic damage to the United States would drastically affect the rest of the world, especially countries relying on U.S. commerce.

* Internal problems

I feel like the best way to start weakening the United States would be to exploit pre-existing problems in the U.S., most notably the broad variety of THE GUV'MINT WANT TO TAKE MAH GUNS nutjobs and the various variations on the theme. Supporting these groups would provide a steady level of disturbance on the domestic front, but since they are few and far in between, with most Americans consenting to political apathy (something common to democracies, as far as I'm concerned), utilizing them to full potential would require more drastic steps.

Enter domestic terrorism. Encouraging and arming the most radical groupings and encouraging already unstable individuals can lead to a rise in terror attacks carried out against Americans by Americans. If the process is not detected and the groups are not defused by national security agencies, this will definitely lead to tightening domestic security and impose further restrictions on top of those already existing.

In general, I don't think U.S. citizens will care about increased intensity of security, as long as it doesn't touch the things they actually care about (as the passage of the PATRIOT Act shows, actual liberties rank pretty low on that list). Given the prevalence of gun culture and the prominence of gun-related discourse, targeting this aspect of American culture can yield potentially the most results. Of course, getting the federal government to act against its own best interests can be hard.

In my opinion, they should be forced to enact measures that have been long decried by various more or less insane groups and individuals, like a national registry of firearm owners or mandatory background checks. I'd have to think of it more, but ensuring that weapons carried out in the attacks (especially mass shootings) were acquired legally and did not end up in the hands of the perpetrator through unlawful means.

The obvious immediate result would be the equivalent of a shitstorm perpetrated by the right wing and likely the immediate radicalization of the more unstable gun owners and associations. I can't think of a single more destructive event than this.

* Balkanization

Obviously, the most effective weapon of weakening the United States would be to break it apart. It would be hard, but would definitely yield ample benefits, as smaller countries that broke off from the Union would not only become much more manageable and easy to influence, but would further destabilize the continent by the virtue of their existence.

The caveat is that for this to happen, the U.S. has to be already weakened by previous steps. In order for it to truly fall apart, though, fully fledged, legitimate separatist movements would have to be present, strong, and supported by the populace. Funneling funds and knowledge to them can only work so far.

The key, in my opinion, would be to reduce the standing of the federal government to the point where people would start believing they're better off on their own. And by that I don't mean fringe lunatics convinced the GUV'MINT WANTS TO TAKE MAH GUNS, but your average Joes and Janes, no longer possessing any loyalty to the Union.

Perhaps it would be best to start with states that have natural outwards tendencies. Texas is the usual choice in fiction, but would it actually work? Requires more research.

The added benefit is that fracturing of the United States automatically cuts apart its military and nuclear potential. And with said nuclear potential breaking free of the federal government (unless they decide on desperate military action, furthering the goals), I believe foreign powers would be interested in making sure it doesn't fall into the wrong hands.

* Overarching goals

I think it's good to keep your eyes on the ultimate goal all the time. In this case, it is the preparation of the American populace for invasion and conditioning them to see it not as an actual invasion, but welcome relief and help. It is true that strong patriotism is usually the norm, sometimes bordering on jingoism, but if circumstances could be created in which basic necessities aren't readily available and the quality of life drops sharply, I wager loyalty to the state would fly out the window. Especially if the rule of law and effectiveness of law enforcement agencies can be curbed to the point that safety isn't guaranteed.

In short, the United States needs to fail as a state, if not in practice, then at minimum in the eyes of its citizens.
 
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