Come and see... the live show of a war going on

[DarkCorp]

But the U.S. is going to be in the area. The U.S. isn't going to leave. Pride has a limit. The U.S. learned its lesson during Vietnam. We have defense commitments with Japan and Taiwan. Will Putin seriously ruin his country all bceause of pride?

As Dope said, warfare has changed drastically. It is not enough to simply have a powerful military. You need to have a system of alliances, you need to have experience in running several theatres of wars across the globe. You have to have force projection. The U.S. STILL has NATO. The soviets were successful because they had a large array of host nations to leech off of. Without those host nations, how much can Russia really accomplish?

AS said before, the dragon, I believe, is not going to make solid commitments to anyone. Chinas primary political might lies in its ability to adjust to an ever changing scenarios. Who would have thought the China, who taunted and insulted the U.S., calling it a 'paper tiger', would end up being americas best buddies only a few decades later. The PRC does NOT have experience running total war combat scenarios on different fronts. Most of the big nations got their experience from the world wars. China, at the time, was still weak due to backwardness and the Qing Dynasty. While the PRC has modern equipment, they do not have force projection. They can defend their borders well enough, but they have no aircraft carriers, which are widely considered one of the primary tools that makeup force projection. Scratch that, they have the Lioning but are still in the process of training pilots and learning the ins and outs of carrier management. I think it will be another decade before China will have a completely domestic built modern carrier.

Chinas main strength is through alliances/deal making, cyberwarfare and last resort, nukes.

I dunno if Russia could join NATO but I believe its worth a try. Instead of trying vainly to change Russia into a global power akin to the soviet era, they could use their position as a permanent security counil member to work with the other 4/rest of the world to make it better.

 

[Gonzalez]

Full war between powerful nations can no longuer be. At most limited offensives. Things the scale of WWII would be the ruin of participant nations. True, countries like the US has some very sofisticated weapons, that would be spent in the initial clashes, and then everyone would be bogged down in a hand to hand, rifle to rifle, spade vs bayonet type of combat. They don't make M1 abrahams tanks anymore, and the more complex the weapon the more complex to start with production again, same with the latests versions of the T-90, that's why russia still has tons of older tanks as reserve in depots around the country, and why the US still has plenty of Cold War materials mothballed as well. Well, all this would happen at least until one of the sides was facing total defeat, then they would push the red button and it would be nuclear winter for us all.

So, lets better hope it doesn't happen, it would be bad news for everyone.

I dunno if Russia could join NATO but I believe its worth a try. Instead of trying vainly to change Russia into a global power akin to the soviet era, they could use their position as a permanent security counil member to work with the other 4/rest of the world to make it better.

I don't think you understand how things work. Russia would never join NATO unless there is some sort of pro-west coup and the new government acknowlodged the US as their new master. If we were all equals NATO should not exist, and the UN would actually be worth for something.

 

[MutantScalper]

From what I've read, during the Soviet era, I'm not sure how much Soviet Union or Russia "leeched" off other socialist nations. Based on what I know most other socialist nations were free to do their own thing as long as they maintained a socialist, pro-Soviet Union leadership. Some of them, like DDR, tried to be even more socialist then Soviet Union itself.

I'm not sure if China is America's "best buddy" now or will ever be. There's trade between them and US is also indebt to China, but I'm not sure how friendly the two really are. As in the link I showed earlier China is in favour of Russia and the separatists in the Ukraine conflict so it doesn't seem to me that everything is so rosy between US and China. China is also in favour of increasing press censorship in order to stop things like the Charlie Hebdo etc. things from happening. Again, pretty different from USA.

 

[DarkCorp]

Ok, maybe best buddy isn't the word for it. But is China committed to Russia enough to back it against the U.S. and NATO in the event of war?

Why does everyone think that working with the west is akin to putting on your best shit eating grin and baring your asshole? Are you saying that the nations of the U.K., France, and Germany no better than american slave clients? What about Taiwan and Japan?

How did the Soviets rebuild after the massive damage from the war? Wikipedia article, will try to find others. http://www.shsu.edu/~his_ncp/Soviet2.html

By the end of World War Two, most of Eastern Europe, and the Soviet Union in particular, suffered vast destruction.[SUP][54][/SUP] The Soviet Union had suffered a staggering 27 million deaths, and the destruction of significant industry and infrastructure, both by the Nazi Wehrmacht and the Soviet Union itself in a "scorched earth" policy to keep it from falling in Nazi hands as they advanced over 1,000 miles to within 15 miles of Moscow.[SUP][54][/SUP] Thereafter, the Soviet Union physically transported and relocated east European industrial assets to the Soviet Union.[SUP][54][/SUP]
This was especially pronounced in eastern European Axis countries, such as Romania and Hungary, where such a policy was considered as punitive reparations (a principle accepted by Western powers).[SUP][55][/SUP] In some cases, Red Army officers viewed cities, villages and farms as being open to looting.[SUP][56][/SUP] Other Eastern Bloc states were required to provide coal, industrial equipment, technology, rolling stock and other resources to reconstruct the Soviet Union.[SUP][57][/SUP] Between 1945 and 1953, the Soviets received a net transfer of resources from the rest of the Eastern Bloc under this policy roughly comparable to the net transfer from the United States to western Europe in the Marshall Plan.[SUP][57]

[/SUP]

 

[Deleted member 53669]

Being apart of NATO does not mean that the United States is your master. It is the majority power broker.

However, if Russia and China joined NATO, it would mean that the U.S. would also have to cater to the power shift.


But as said before, if they did NATO wouldn't exist, it would just be the U.N.

 

[DarkCorp]

I agree with Dope as he did a better job at communicating what I was thinking.

The U.S. is teh worlds sole superpower. Lets just face it. No amount of angry sabre rattling is going to change it. Instead, Russia and China could make NATO obsolete and take things towards a new direction instead of petty squabbling.

 

[Crni Vuk]

People give a fuck, that's the whole reason the EU and the US are getting involved. Don't give me the bullshit that you do "everything to protect them". If the US and the EU would do everything to protect Ukraine, including rolling in tanks and running air sorties to bomb the insurgents to hell, you'd be moaning to high heavens that they're turning Ukraine into a military junta, just how you're complaining they're not doing anything right now because they're desperately looking for a solution that doesn't include more violence.

There's no pleasing you, is there?

You and me yes, we do. Though not enough to really do something about it.

But Merkel? Obama? Looking desperately for a solution? Let us be real. Biggest joke ever. Com on Tagz. The world is ruled by the 1% and they simply don't give a fuck what the other 99% are killing themselfs, even less about the people in Ukraine just as how they never gave a fuck about the people in Kosovo. And yes I woud be complaining about it because I question the motivations of our dear leaders and because bombs and shit don't solve anything. You see I have respect for people like Rebiya Kadeer and Anna Politkowskaja. But Obama? Putin? Merkel? Not really, their heads are far to up in the asses of banks, corporations and lobbyists.

If it would demand military actions to solve the issues than this will not happen because like I said, our dear leaders would not start a third world war because of Ukraine. Because they don't give a fuck about the people down there.

 

[Gonzalez]

Ok, let me put it this way then. US would never let Russia or China join the NATO as equals, the only way they could be part of it would be by subjugating them (AKA making them agree with their view of the world). The US is not interested in making NATO the new UN. NATO is an instrument to make not aligned countries fall in line.

NATO was created as an alliance against the soviets, there is no more Soviet Union, there is no more Warsaw Pact, there is no reason for NATO to exist other than what I mentioned earlier. NATO is already obsolete.

NATO is an alliance of like minded nations who view the world a certain way, China and Russia view it differently, and NATO is not interested on discussing about changing their views with the imput of either China or Russia. China and Russia joining NATO? Not going to happen.

NATO is not the UN, and doesn't intend to be the UN.

We already have a UN.

 

[Sub-Human]

People give a fuck, that's the whole reason the EU and the US are getting involved...they're not doing anything right now because they're desperately looking for a solution that doesn't include more violence.

There's no pleasing you, is there?

The solution is very simple, introduce new sanctions. European businesses continue to operate in Russia. The few sanctions against petrochemical industry in Russia is aimed at arctic expeditions rather than the existing develoments. Why are Duma politicians and Putin's oligarch friends and propagandists allowed to move around Europe, go to their villa in Southern France or mansion in the Italian mountains?

As Crni said - all the lobbying and the large businesses are not allowing complete isolation of Russia. Every time someone in the US raises the question of sanctions someone else in the EU tells them to feck off.

 

[Gonzalez]

Because applying sanctions to Russia may not harm US interests but does harm european interests. If EU were to stop all trade with Russia then Russia would be harmed, but then all they have to do is switch their businesses to China (Want a gas and oil guzzler? China is hungry for them), India, Iran, South America, and Africa. If the EU cuts all commercial ties to Russia they would loose natural resources they cannot get anywhere else, or at least would have a seriously bad time replacing. It would harm the EU more then Russia. Of course the US doesn't give a feck if the EU is burned just to harm Russia. And like I said, Russia would never be completely isolated, they would just move to other markets, wich they are doing right now anyways because they see what's comming. US and EU actions of late are isolating no one but themselves, in a near future this could end up with the US and the EU trading only among themselves and the rest of the world turning their backs on them.

 

[Sub-Human]

Because applying sanctions to Russia may not harm US interests but does harm european interests. If EU were to stop all trade with Russia then Russia would be harmed, but then all they have to do is switch their businesses to China (Want a gas and oil guzzler? China is hungry for them), India, Iran, South America, and Africa. If the EU cuts all commercial ties to Russia they would loose natural resources they cannot get anywhere else, or at least would have a seriously bad time replacing. It would harm the EU more then Russia. Of course the US doesn't give a feck if the EU is burned just to harm Russia. And like I said, Russia would never be completely isolated, they would just move to other markets, wich they are doing right now anyways because they see what's comming. US and EU actions of late are isolating no one but themselves, in a near future this could end up with the US and the EU trading only among themselves and the rest of the world turning their backs on them.

Russia simply does not have the industries to 'switch business', so to speak. Chinese gas deal, which the Kremlin propaganda was making into the deal of the century, provides less than a quarter of the annual exports to Europe (about 30 billion cubic meters compared to 160). Meanwhile Romania and Bulgaria have already invested into a 600 billion cube natural gas deposit in the Black Sea, a European gas project to rival Russian 'South Stream' would also be able to push close to 20 billion cubic meters annually (costing several times less, too), and Turkey has infrastructure in Azerbaijan for natural gas. Just about every European state has also invested into liquified natural gas terminals, no longer requiring direct pipelines.

When Russia introduced the so-called 'anti-sanctions' - forbidding imports from Europe - the economy went into a downward spiral. Prices for basic products have risen by a good 50%. It is too dependent on imports to become a major trading partner, especially for such countries like China or India. Them abandoning American or European markets? I just don't see it.

 

[Crni Vuk]

People give a fuck, that's the whole reason the EU and the US are getting involved...they're not doing anything right now because they're desperately looking for a solution that doesn't include more violence.

There's no pleasing you, is there?

The solution is very simple, introduce new sanctions. European businesses continue to operate in Russia. The few sanctions against petrochemical industry in Russia is aimed at arctic expeditions rather than the existing develoments. Why are Duma politicians and Putin's oligarch friends and propagandists allowed to move around Europe, go to their villa in Southern France or mansion in the Italian mountains?

As Crni said - all the lobbying and the large businesses are not allowing complete isolation of Russia. Every time someone in the US raises the question of sanctions someone else in the EU tells them to feck off.

For a reason I guess. Soon enough our politicans will realize what is really on the stake. And I can tell you. It's not the Ukraine. It's Russia.

We should never ever do the mistake to understimate Russia. To many did that in the past. As far as Europe goes, there can never be a real peace and stability without Russia, which is the reason why we have to look rather for diplomacy and the dialogue. I mean Putin will at some point disapear, he can't stay in power for ever, and when that happens we can probably do a lot more if Russia is thinking about Europe as partner instead of some rival. Doesn't mean we should not call them out on their errors. But we are not showing real consistency here.

 

[Gonzalez]

Russia simply does not have the industries to 'switch business', so to speak. Chinese gas deal, which the Kremlin propaganda was making into the deal of the century, provides less than a quarter of the annual exports to Europe (about 30 billion cubic meters compared to 160). Meanwhile Romania and Bulgaria have already invested into a 600 billion cube natural gas deposit in the Black Sea, a European gas project to rival Russian 'South Stream' would also be able to push close to 20 billion cubic meters annually (costing several times less, too), and Turkey has infrastructure in Azerbaijan for natural gas. Just about every European state has also invested into liquified natural gas terminals, no longer requiring direct pipelines.

When Russia introduced the so-called 'anti-sanctions' - forbidding imports from Europe - the economy went into a downward spiral. Prices for basic products have risen by a good 50%. It is too dependent on imports to become a major trading partner, especially for such countries like China or India. Them abandoning American or European markets? I just don't see it.

What is worse? Russia's basic products going up 100% or Europe going without gas for the winter and for its industries. How fast could they find another supplyer. And China and India make a shit-ton of cheap basic products, Russia can purchase from them. They are already major parthners, ever heard of BRICS? You are right on one thing, Russia got too lazy selling resources and purchasing manofactures from abroad, so maybe the EU should do them a favor and force them to re-industrialize, that would create jobs and improve their economy, and make them stronger as a nation. I think Putin should get started on a five year plan right away, and start using its resources for their own industries instead of selling them.

 

[Sub-Human]

And China and India make a shit-ton of cheap basic products, Russia can purchase from them. They are already major parthners, ever heard of BRICS? You are right on one thing, Russia got too lazy selling resources and purchasing manofactures from abroad, so maybe the EU should do them a favor and force them to re-industrialize, that would create jobs and improve their economy, and make them stronger as a nation. I think Putin should get started on a five year plan right away, and start using its resources for their own industries instead of selling them.

Buying products from China, India, or whoever offers the lowest price - is not going to fix Russian economy. They need a lot of money to start investing into industries and massive tax exonerations - and in the current situation, getting that money is not very easy. Putin claimed that in 2 years the economy will magically fix itself due to high oil prices and import replacement. What guarantee do domestic companies have that after 2 of these years Russia won't start trading with foreign businesses again pushing all this home production back onto the sidewalk? What guarantee do they have that Putin won't start interfering in their affairs if the crisis worsens (like he did in December 2014, forcing banks and industries to dump their foreign currency to inflate the ruble)? It's just not going to happen with the current political situation.

 

[Gonzalez]

Whatever the US and EU do to try to bring Russia to it's knees will only alienate them more from the european market, neither Putin nor the russian population are the kind to give under pressure, this is why a great deal of people in Russia still supports Puttin, even if they have to pay 50% more for their things. You think they are going to blame Putin for not giving in to western sanctions? If he did this would make him look weak, and there is nothing the russians hate more than a weak leader. The sanctions are basically forcing Putin not to back down, and the more sanctions the west gives Russia the stronger he has to look, so if the objective of the sanctions is to make Russia back down it is being rather counter-productive. It's all or nothing for Russia now, they can't back down as it is, even if they have to go trough some hardships, they'll still survive, and they'll remember what happened. They don't blame Putin for western sanctions, they blame the west.

What did sanctions and embargoes did for Cuba? Did they ever backed down? Only difference is that Russia won't be completely isolated having the BRICS behind them, and they have a helluva lot more natural resources than Cuba could ever dream of. This kind of actions will only lead Russia to re-industrialize and re-militarize bringing things to a neo cold war state that will benefit no one.

 

[Sub-Human]

Whatever the US and EU do to try to bring Russia to it's knees will only alienate them more from the european market, neither Putin nor the russian population are the kind to give under pressure, this is why a great deal of people in Russia still supports Puttin, even if they have to pay 50% more for their things...

It's all or nothing for Russia now, they can't back down as it is, even if they have to go trough some hardships, they'll still survive, and they'll remember what happened. They don't blame Putin for western sanctions, they blame the west.

I find it very amusing when people talk about Russian population being 'tough' or 'hard'... In the modern world? They are used to flat-screen TVs, imported sedans and a number of French cheese brands in the supermarket. And all the Putin-supporter crowd you hear about will be the first on the streets when their local Apple store closes down.

Anyway, the sanctions are not - and definitely should not be - about Russia, its people or the economy. It is about internal pressure on Putin. What do you think keeps him in power? Popular policies, approval ratings, leadership? No. The oligarchs, the FSB, the generals and the TV propagandists - all of whom enjoy property outside of Russia - is the backbone of Putin's regime. US and EU continue to give out entry bans to all the Givis and Motorollas and other DNR commanders, without focusing on the real source of the problem.

 

[Crni Vuk]

I find it very amusing when people talk about Russian population being 'tough' or 'hard'... In the modern world? They are used to flat-screen TVs, imported sedans and a number of French cheese brands in the supermarket.

Moscow =/= Russia. You would be surprised what the Russian countryside looks like. Seriously, those people are a bit crazy. And this can be said about a lot of nations in the east. Like Poland. The people there can not be compared with France, Germany or Britain. But particularly the Russians. Many Russian villages and even towns are rather rural. The infrastructure is not very sophisticated, at least not in all of Russia. Like I said. Don't understimate them. The Germans learned this hard way.

 

[Gonzalez]

You think harming Russia's economy only hurts Putin and not the russian population? If anything Putin may even gain more popularity now, as the man who stands up against those who sanction Russia. It's not about actually being stronger, what would you do if foreign nations sanctioned your country and hurt your country's economy? Hate your president or the foreign nations who punish you? Not even US citizens used to having some of the best standards of living would put up with something like that, no self respecting country would. That tactic just Does. Not. Work. It never has. McNamara's lesson No. 1, empatize with your enemy, it's something western politicians have been failing at since the end of WWII.

As for russians putting up with hardships, this is how pro russians in Ukraine handle pressure. They're actually so demoralized Ukraine's military is having a hard time in even mantaining their own front lines from falling back, let alone supressing them.

 

[Sub-Human]

Moscow =/= Russia. You would be surprised what the Russian countryside looks like. Seriously, those people are a bit crazy. And this can be said about a lot of nations in the east. Like Poland. The people there can not be compared with France, Germany or Britain. But particularly the Russians. Many Russian villages and even towns are rather rural. The infrastructure is not very sophisticated, at least not in all of Russia. Like I said. Don't understimate them. The Germans learned this hard way.

Well, first, I do come from a city in the Urals, so I'm aware of the 'true Russian' culture. And I can tell you right now - these people are not tough, or at least any tougher than your average European or American. Everyone has their TVs and phones and an old Toyota or Mercedes, they spend time in the local fast-food, watch American movies in the cinema or just play the newest Call of Duty.

Putin is supported by the passive majority, those people that don't really care. The Antimaidan protest (or Puting, as these are called) gathered 15 thousand people, mostly those that were paid 300 rubles or promised a day off from their job. The marches in favor of the DNR collected about 2 thousand. Boris Nemtsov's death, however, had 50 thousand people all on the streets of Central Moscow chanting against the current regime.

Ukrainian military is demoralized because they are being sent to the frontlines with very little equipment or support. Ukraine by 2012 was the #4 weapons exporter in the world, behind Russia, US and China. That's some competition, right? Unfortunately Poroshenko, a rather incompetent leader, has not solved the corruption crisis and armaments continue to be sold off.

On top of that Ukraine is mobilizing their people to go to war, a move that definitely won't play a positive role on morale.

Harming Russia's economy does hurt the Russian people indeed. Unfortunately they do not realize that the Russian government is as much in fault here as the evil Western bankers. Introducing a ban on imports in a country that heavily depends on foreign products, whilst Russia no longer can get Western loans and the price of oil fell (two factors which have led to Russia's economic growth in the past 15 years)? That's a recipe for disaster, thus the ruble peaked at close to 80 rubles a dollar and people were frantically buying home appliances, electronics and cars off the shelves.

 

[Gonzalez]

What you describe sounds typical of a process known and import substitution, wich leads to industrialization, and if the order to stop importing goods comes from the russian govt itself then there is no doubt about it. At first there will be a frenzy for buying those things that won't be available, and imported goods will go up in price, but this will only make manofacturing them locally more profitable. I'd like to know if the russian govt is also granting tax cut and/or other incentives to local industries, this would be a final confirmation of it. No country should ever export raw materials and import manofactures, this puts them in a trade deficit where money flees the country, as manofactures are always many times more expensive than raw materials.

And I already said that even people from countries who are fat and lazy wouldn't stand for external aggression (economical or otherwise), it always antagonizes the population against the aggresor, not it's own leaders, it gives their leaders more popularity and creates feelings of nationalism. Wich is exactly what is happening in Ukraine. How many russian nationals are fighting in the militias as volunteers? Same with the Ukrainian side, their motivation for fighthing comes from the fact everywhere in the media they hear the russians are, not just figthing a proxi war using rebels, but have plain sent troops to invade them, an external aggression, so they'll fight even if they don't like Poroshenko, and he will remain in power bacause of this.

All this just keeps antagonizing everyone more and more. Germans are not dumb, they want to negotiate and not antagonize the Russians for a reason.