Come and see... the live show of a war going on

[Crni Vuk]

Well, first, I do come from a city in the Urals, so I'm aware of the 'true Russian' culture. And I can tell you right now - these people are not tough, or at least any tougher than your average European or American. Everyone has their TVs and phones and an old Toyota or Mercedes, they spend time in the local fast-food, watch American movies in the cinema or just play the newest Call of Duty.
.

I was comparing them to the average Germans though. I mean I would go so far and say that the Russian population can deal with a lot of shit, if they have to. I can't say the same about the Germans. YOu know what they say about Russia? They had 3 big wars. WW1, WW2 and Chernobyl. Just looking at their history, we simply should not understimate the willpower of the normal poulation. Already German generals in WW2 have been deeply surprised by that giving out comments about what the ordinary Russian can bear compared to the German Grunt. Not to mention if they can't get all this awesome stuff anymore that consumerism gives them, who will the ordinary Russian blame? Putin and his guys? Or Europe/US?

And I agree more or less with Gonzalez, we can throw a lot of stuff against Russia, economic sanctions, blame etc. But it is questionable how much effect it will have, or if it will be the desired effect. See, you can send a message to someone. What he understands from this message though, is beyond our controll. Putin has a lot of controll and support in the population. Think about it if Europe or China would start sanctions against the US. Would they feel like they have to "listen"? Doubtfull. And I am sick of all this Putin = Hitler stuff, we have to stop him bla bla bla. As like anyone would SERIOUSLY risk a third world war over the Ukraine. Let us be realistic. In a few years when things are quiet again no one will give a flying fuck about what happens down there. And that ist he real sad part. How long do we use sanctions against North Korea? How long have be thrown political blame at them? Has it done anything in the last 60 years? Has it done anything against Iraq? Iran and their nuclear program?

 

[Sub-Human]

I'd like to know if the russian govt is also granting tax cut and/or other incentives to local industries, this would be a final confirmation of it.

Russian government raised key interest rate to 17%, now loans are up to and increasing from 30%. Ridiculous, especially if you consider that Putin just decided to lower interest rate for Cyprus' debt to Russia from 4.5% to 2%. In other words - foreign countries' debt is more important than the native Russian factories, businesses. Of course the real reason is because Cyprus is where a lot of Russian offshore accounts are. To Putin - protecting his and his friends' money - infinitely more important than the lives of ordinary Russians. And this just proves it. Again I'll say, under the current politicial situation replacing imports with domestic production will be very difficult.

At first there will be a frenzy for buying those things that won't be available, and imported goods will go up in price, but this will only make manofacturing them locally more profitable.

Putin claimed in 2 or so years, the entire crisis will be over. These local manufacturers have no guarantee that after the 2 years Russia won't start trading with foreign businesses, who'll once again dominate the market. Why should they invest into a start-up? Out of 'patriotic duty'?

No country should ever export raw materials and import manofactures, this puts them in a trade deficit where money flees the country, as manofactures are always many times more expensive than raw materials

Strange, but in 2014 over $150 bln. investment capital had fled Russia, more than in 2008, during the global financial crisis. Likewise, domestic production halted its progress, e.g. agricultural industry growth was only 5% compared to 26-27% in 2011 - when there were no sanctions, high oil prices, and all the money in the world to start import substitution...

And I am sick of all this Putin = Hitler stuff, we have to stop him bla bla bla. As like anyone would SERIOUSLY risk a third world war over the Ukraine. Let us be realistic.

So 'we' shouldn't stop him? He's responsible for a brother-killing war in Eastern Ukraine, the least you could do is support the idea of stopping his aggression policies. The man should be sitting in the court room in the Hague, with his public confession of planning the annexation of Crimea in front of the judge.

 

[Crni Vuk]

I DO support the idea of stoping him. It's just not realistic. Again, what options do we have? Many people with a military background in Germany believe that those sanctions our politicans talk about are a joke for example. And for many it becomes slowly but steadily clear that this conflict is more about american interests in Eastern Europe and not about democracy for the Ukraine, on the Surface Europe and the US talk about cooperation, but it is pretty obvious that they don't have a clear strategy or common goals.

But in the end no one of our politicans really gives a shit about the Ukraine, if they are really free, a democracy or what ever and that is the sadest part. But comparing Putin with Hitler is simply a rhetoric that suits no one. Neither does it help us nor does it improve the situation. I mean for the Americans everyone is Hitler anyway. Sadam is Hitler, Gadafi is Hitler, Putin is Hitler, everone they don't like is Hitler.

The man should be sitting in the court room in the Hague, with his public confession of planning the annexation of Crimea in front of the judge.

I support the idea. But if we are fair, the first faces we should see there are some american ones, like Bush, Kissinger and many more. I am sure we could also find a few european mofo politicans that could fit in there as well.

 

[Sub-Human]

I DO support the idea of stoping him. It's just not realistic. Again, what options do we have?

Easy - sanction his closest circle of friends and the Russian administration, as well as TV personas, that claimed support for annexation of Crimea or spread lies about Ukraine. All in all that would equal a couple hundred people. It doesn't hurt the Russian economy, it doesn't concern the Russian people, and it puts pressure onto Putin - they will ask him to end aggression in Ukraine.

As I said before, European businesses have interest in the 150 million market that is the Russian population. This, and the threat of a conventional non-nuclear war in Europe, are the obstacles that prevent the administration in US and EU coming up with a unified sanction package.

 

[Gonzalez]

So 'we' shouldn't stop him? He's responsible for a brother-killing war in Eastern Ukraine, the least you could do is support the idea of stopping his aggression policies. The man should be sitting in the court room in the Hague, with his public confession of planning the annexation of Crimea in front of the judge.

1- Better them than me.
2- You think you can bring Russia to it's knees with sanctions? Go ahead and see where it gets you. Again, Cuba and North Korea, only this time you'll have a huge North Korea with enough nuclear power to actually obliterate the planet. Russia won't yield, and you'll just get a new cold war. But go ahead, please. If Putin is ousted there are more chances of the communists taking over than a western friendly government.

 

[Sub-Human]

If Putin is ousted there are more chances of the communists taking over than a western friendly government.

The only choice as of now is between Putin's successor (who will continue stealing for himself and the oligarch caste that supports the current Russian regime) or a liberal opposition leader, the latter only happening if massive protests occur and thus bring down the whole power vertical. The communists aren't really in the equation.

 

[Gonzalez]

a liberal opposition leader

Who? In all presidential ellections held the communist party's candidate has came second after Putin's party.

Don't tell me you are one of those who are fooled by those "spring" protests when each and every one of them has proven to be a total fiasco. In Lybia the local warlords are worse than Gadafi, in Egypt the current dictator is worse than Mubarak and has now learned how to use social media to track down trouble makers, in Syria it has only led to a civil war that has already detroyed 70% of the country, and the rebel leaders are now Al Quada and Isis who if they win they would make Syria another islamic state, simmilar situation in Yemen. In Kiev it has led a corrupt chocolate tycoon into power who most people who supported maidan want ousted as soon as the war ends.

In russia most people support Putin, the second most want communism back, third come democratic socialists not as hardline as communists but in the same lines as them, and fouth and last come nationalists pan-slavic imperialists who would be ecstatic with the idea of annexing slavic countries. Have a "spring protest" there and if sucessful it will only lead to a series of events that will most likely end with the reappearance of the USSR.

 

[BigBoss]

If the voting map is to be believed, there is no "vast" anti-russian "majority". Though of course, I say this from a position of ignorance on the subject as a whole.

Half of my country keeps voting for the opposition party (usually). Does that mean they want to split off into a separate state? No, they obviously don't. Same applies to Ukraine. Whatever sympathies the eastern part of Ukraine has, separating and becoming a vassal state of Russia is not one of them.

EDIT:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–15_Russian_military_intervention_in_Ukraine

Good rundown.

All of this is 100% correct. I've never agreed more with Tagz.

The basis of this is just that, Russia is stirring up as much shit as they can. They're making it look like the "Russian people" are really sympathetic to Russian-Ukrainians, "donating food and money and even people volunteering to fight", when in fact this all being done by the Russian Government. Even if there is indeed a larger scale of Russian citizens donating food (weapons and ammunition), money (military provisions), and citizens volunteering to fight (Russian Special Forces posing as "sympathetic citizens"), then the "Russian citizens" that are putting up these supplies are far, far outnumbered on a very large scale by the government. I believe several intelligence agencies have already traced several of the Russian "civilian-run" organizations that sending donations to the Russian-rebels in Ukraine back to the Russian government.

Anyways, long story short, Russia is stirring shit up over there as much as possible.

 

[Sub-Human]

a liberal opposition leader

Who? In all presidential ellections held the communist party's candidate has came second after Putin's party.

In russia most people support Putin, the second most want communism back, third come democratic socialists not as hardline as communists but in the same lines as them, and fouth and last come nationalists pan-slavic imperialists who would be ecstatic with the idea of annexing slavic countries. Have a "spring protest" there and if sucessful it will only lead to a series of events that will most likely end with the reappearance of the USSR.

You are referencing elections in a police state as if they are completely credible and reliable.

There are a number of opposition leaders, Navalny, Kasyanov, Milov, the now-deceased Nemtsov. But even now it is irrelevant as long as a repressive government is in place.

If no opposition silencing would happen, we would see an emergence of a large amount of liberal candidates and growth of existing parties. Not the communists, pan-slavic imperialists or whatever radical movement you believe holds large support in Russia. This was proven after the 2011 protests; when Putin temporarily allowed regional elections, it was liberal parties that were voted for by the majority in a number of regions.

 

[Gonzalez]

When there was communism it was a repressive regime, now there is democracy and no matter who wins it will be a repressive regime.
Automatic disqualification of anything they do, even when Putin's approval rates are in record high. But I suppose this is only because Putin has a gun in the back of every russian's head.

Of course there are liberal opositors, and they will always cry "repression!", but they're a joke, used by media to disqualify Russias democratic processes because they don't like the results. It's like Lilita Carrio here in Argentina, she gets a lot of camera time where she speaks of the repressive government, comparing them to Hittler even, in a time where political freedom has never been higher in the country's entire history, sharing her conspiracy theories, and then during ellections she gets near to zero points. No one takes her seriously, but if you were to actually pay attention to her nonsense the country is living in a George Orwell's 1984 dystopia.

If those leaders you mentioned really had enough support Putin would not be able to keep them from being candidates. He should probably let them be candidates though (even with minimal support, not sure how much you need to appear in the ballots) if anything just to show how minimal their votes are.

 

[Sub-Human]

When there was communism it was a repressive regime, now there is democracy and no matter who wins it will be a repressive regime.

What democracy?

Of course there are liberal opositors, and they will always cry "repression!", but they're a joke, used by media to disqualify Russias democratic processes because they don't like the results.

You are telling me the people that have worked up hundreds of reports on the very basic violation of freedom and major corruption schemes in Russia are a joke? What the fuck?

If those leaders you mentioned really had enough support Putin would not be able to keep them from being candidates. He should probably let them be candidates though (even with minimal support, not sure how much you need to appear in the ballots) if anything just to show how minimal their votes are.

Well, that's funny, but they are all disqualified from elections. Some have a 'criminal past' (for example Navalny is in court for 'stealing money from a company', despite the fact that said company dropped all charges and claimed he didn't steal a ruble), others simply require a million or more signatures.

The only man eligible for presidential elections without having to go through all the bureacracy, was murdered in front of the Kremlin in the eyes of dozens FSO agents, Boris Nemtsov.

After Boris got a seat in the regional Duma, the Russian government quickly changed the legislation. Thus Navalny never qualified for the Moscow Parliament. Why would that be?

Navalny amassed over 21% in votes when running for Moscow mayor. When requesting data from voting booths, his team was denied the access, and several incocistencies were found once they did a rough calculation of the voters; all this points to ballot stuffing, as well as rallying locals from nearby villages, tactics used by the Russian government during the 2011 elections.

 

[Gonzalez]

Simple facts, if Putin didn't had the support of the population he wouldn't be able to do the things he does. If you can't reach 1 million signatures in a country of 146 million then maybe thats a hint. And saying there is no democracy because only major parties win is like saying there is no democracy in the US because the only parties that ever win are either the democrat or the republican. The only real choice in Russia is Putin's party or the communists because they are the only real strong political forces. You can't say there isn't democracy because some random independant candidate cannot compete against stronger political parties. At least not unless you say the same about every single democracy on the planet.

What about the voting machine fiasco, or Bush stealing the ellections from Al Gore. You cannot point at every single ellection controversy and use it to either say there is no democracy or that an 86% approval is a complete manufacture. Even if that approval rating is embelished it's still too high.

But go ahead, try to destabilize Russia to put a pro western puppet in power and see where it gets you. We are not talking about some backward tiny nation that the CIA keep switching leaders in for the US to control, we are talking about Russia.

Everyone keeps thinking that the dream of all people in the world is to have a revolution and switch their government to a pro-western puppet, and then magically their living standards will be the same as in the US. Seriously, enough with the bull, no one is buying it anymore.

 

[Sub-Human]

Simple facts, if Putin didn't had the support of the population he wouldn't be able to do the things he does.

Actually, yes, he would. The Russian people are apathetic and most (looking at the average Putin supporter) wouldn't protest unless they are directly affected (like the McDonalds down the street closes).

This same passive majority would change their opinions in a heartbeat if the media showed them facts. But Kiselev-TV are concerned with hysteria about Ukrainian fascists and collapsing US dollar (for the past 15 years now, it's getting a little stale...)

And saying there is no democracy because only major parties win is like saying there is no democracy in the US because the only parties that ever win are either the democrat or the republican.

Except only one party wins, United Russia. They also get more funding than any other political party combined and hold more seats in the Parliament. For a good 15 years now.

But go ahead, try to destabilize Russia to put a pro western puppet in power and see where it gets you. We are not talking about some backward tiny nation that the CIA keep switching leaders in for the US to control, we are talking about Russia.

So any political leader who stands for free elections and a liberal policy is a pro-Western puppet? I guess we have two types of politicians - fighters of the free world like Putin, who arrest and kill opposition members, censor any free speech, steal natural resources for personal profit, and the evil West, that enjoy higher standard of living and actually change leaders every once in a while.

 

[Gonzalez]

If the leader gets ellected all propper like then it's fine, but if the leader comes to power after protests and riots ousted the previous one then it smells like CIA sponsored coup to me.

And if russians ellect Putin out of apathy or out whatever reason he still is the the majority leader, even if a minority really hates his guts. Maybe most russians are "apathetic" because they are quite comfortable with the way things are.

And that's what all the sanctions are aimed at, making people who are comfortable uncomfortable so that they can be manipulated into a political change more favorable to someone else's agenda. That's called geopolitics and it's what the US government is playing at.

 

[Sub-Human]

If the leader gets ellected all propper like then it's fine, but if the leader comes to power after protests and riots ousted the previous one then it smells like CIA sponsored coup to me.

How does a leader get elected 'all proper' in a police state? The only way to converse with the Russian government is through protests and riots. It worked well enough in 2011, when opposition members were finally being invited onto national TV, regional elections were once again legal, and you could even criticize Putin. Though after United Russia lost a number of regional elections because the people actually got to vote and express their opinion, Putin quickly banned all protests, shut down independent media outlets and jailed opposition.

And if russians ellect Putin out of apathy or out whatever reason he still is the the majority leader, even if a minority really hates his guts. Maybe most russians are "apathetic" because they are quite comfortable with the way things are.

Well, they were quite happy comfortable with the Soviet Union, too. Then, after a number of liberal reforms and less media censoring, suddenly the 99% Soviet citizens that supported the Communist party were out on the streets.

 

[Gonzalez]

Remember that under Yeltsin ellections were just as "undemocratic" if not more, but since he was western friendly no one said anything about it, Clinton even supported his bombardment of the parliament. Complaining about lack of transparency now that the current government is not pro western, forgive me if it sounds a bit hypocritical to me. Also the pupulation wasnt doing well under Yeltsin, and they are certainly doing better now, even with the sanctions, so why should they want a pro western leader again, when they have a better one now that has promised to return Russia to it's former glory? It's a no brainer really.

 

[Sub-Human]

Remember that under Yeltsin ellections were just as "undemocratic" if not more, but since he was western friendly no one said anything about it, Clinton even supported his bombardment of the parliament. Complaining about lack of transparency now that the current government is not pro western, forgive me if it sounds a bit hypocritical to me.

Did we just go from discussing democracy in Russia, to hypocrisy in the West?

Also the pupulation wasnt doing well under Yeltsin, and they are certainly doing better now, even with the sanctions, so why should they want a pro western leader again, when they have a better one now that has promised to return Russia to it's former glory? It's a no brainer really.

The population wasn't doing well because of the legacy of the Soviet Union and the unfortunate economic situation - nationalized industrial giants, no free market, corruption and low oil prices.

I understand quite well why a brain-washed Russian would vote for Putin. The problem is that those that are not glued to the Kremlin-TV and share an alternative view cannot express themselves.

 

[Gonzalez]

So basically you are saying that most people in Russia is too stupid to be trusted the ellection of their own leaders and that you would rather support an inconstitutional coup to force a change in power for their own good.

You know, because inside every russian there is an american trying to get out.

 

[Sub-Human]

So basically you are saying that most people in Russia is too stupid to be trusted the ellection of their own leaders and that you would rather support an inconstitutional coup to force a change in power for their own good.

You know, because inside every russian there is an american trying to get out.

Quite the opposite - this is the viewpoint of many Russian politicians, thus they don't run fair and honest elections. The propaganda, of course, doesn't help.

If you allowed opposition to speak their mind, didn't forge voting numbers, released financial reports (which they are required by law anyway) of Putin's closest friends, and allowed a free media - you'd see a completely different picture.

 

[Gonzalez]

And sanctions help... how?